In September this year, China increased its steel exports by 3.3% compared with the previous month, to 10.49 million tonnes. This was reported by the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA). Compared

In September, regional slab markets saw mixed trends. In particular, average FOB Black Sea quotations rose by $6 to $493/t (as at 15 September), whilst the reference export price for Brazilian slabs fell by approximately $5 to $565/t (FOB).

Brazil

For most of September 2026, the Brazilian slab market showed a downward trend. At the start of the month, the reference export price for Brazilian slabs broke out of the long-term range of $570–580/t, continuing its decline from the peak of $597/t recorded in June. By the middle of the month, prices had stabilised briefly; however, by the end of the second ten-day period, the weekly decline resumed. The trend only reversed at the end of the month, when prices rose slightly for the first time in three months.

Caution and uncertainty prevailed in the market throughout the month. Market participants were awaiting the authorities’ decisions on the possible imposition of anti-dumping duties on Chinese hot-rolled coil (HRC), which held back trading activity. A decision on this matter is expected to be taken in October.

The main driver behind the fall in prices during the third ten-day period was the increase in the volume of raw materials arriving at Chinese ports: ore supplies rose by 16% (to approximately 31 million tonnes), leading to an oversupply. The rise in prices at the end of September was caused by the waning effect of accumulated stocks and the market’s gradual adjustment to the current level of demand.

Exports of Brazilian slabs are characterised by high volatility. According to data from the Brazilian Steel Manufacturers’ Association (IAB), exports fell slightly month-on-month in August to 816,000 tonnes, following a 12% increase in July. In the period from January to August, Brazil increased its slab exports by 15% year-on-year to 4.43 million tonnes.

The US remained the largest export destination in August: the volume of shipments stood at 606,000 tonnes; Mexico and Poland followed. Shipments of Brazilian slabs to the US in August were made on FOB terms at a price of $625–652/t, whilst those to Europe were priced at $568–632/t. Market participants expect Brazilian suppliers to focus more actively on the US and Mexican markets, as well as to supply products to their European subsidiaries at ‘domestic’ prices.

At the same time, reserves for the domestic market are being maintained. According to IAB data, in August local companies reduced slab production by 16% compared with July, to 587,000 tonnes. Slab production over the first eight months rose by 3% year-on-year to 5.5 million tonnes.

Turkey

Average FOB Black Sea prices rose by $6 in September to $493/t (as at 15 September), although they had fallen by $20/t in August. Export prices remain nominal, as large consignments simply cannot be sold.

Prices are rising in the market: Russian suppliers are increasing their prices for slabs due to higher logistics costs. Restrictions on shipping in the Black Sea and the de facto closure of Novorossiysk are forcing cargoes to be redirected to Baltic ports, though difficulties may arise here too (logistics costs will rise by approximately $50/t). Rising freight rates (by $5–7/t for shipments to ports on the Marmara Sea) and the strengthening of the rouble are reducing the profitability of exports.

Suppliers are trying to maintain base export prices, but prices on a CFR basis are rising. Access to alternative sources of slabs is limited: the main supplies come from China, Indonesia and Kazakhstan.

It should be noted that in August, regional slab markets saw a fall in prices of $10–20 per tonne. In particular, average FOB Black Sea prices fell by $19 in August to $487/t, whilst the reference export price for Brazilian slabs fell by $10 to $570/t (FOB).